Geostat has published its rapid estimate of the real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2022, and its estimated growth stands at 9.5%, which is 2.5 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.

The third quarter of 2022 was marked by a “perfect storm” of global challenges. Due to the ongoing geopolitical, economic, and ecological turbulence, with inflation reaching its highest point in decades, the world economy remains volatile.

Geostat has updated its estimates for the first three quarters of 2022, Q1 2022 growth rate now stands at 15%, while the annual growth rates for Q2 and Q3 slightly increased to 7.2% and 9.8%, respectively. The real GDP growth estimate for the first eleven months of 2022 is 10%.

According to Geostat’s updated estimate, the Q3 2022 growth rate stands at 9.7%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2022 is 10.2%.

Following the tentative recovery observed in 2021, global economic conditions worsened significantly in 2022 (IMF, July 2022). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 caused global economic growth estimates to drop for the first time since 2020.